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Are Canadians facing temporary economic discomfort, or is the country on the brink of a full-fledged recession? Economists are divided, with some seeing risks of a downturn in the second half of 2025 and others highlighting uncertainty, reflecting the range of expert perspectives.
The rising costs of essentials are undeniable hot topics on both Bay and Main Streets. Crypto followers tracking these trends, note inflation and trade shocks could fuel volatility in digital assets like Bitcoin (BTC).
Last month, the Bank of Canada (BoC) chose to hold its overnight rate steady at 2.75%, still eyeing the fallout from President Trump’s tariffs. BoC officials suggested, “monetary policy cannot solve trade uncertainty,” doubling down on their 2% inflation target. Despite global trade tensions, the nation’s financial system remains robust, though clear risks loom.
The “erratic and unpredictable” U.S. tariffs could spell trouble for the economy, warns BoC Governor Tiff Macklem. Sustained increases might throttle exports and slow growth as they hit industries like manufacturing. Higher costs for businesses are often passed on to consumers. A recent BoC report noted that trade policy uncertainty is stalling job market recovery, with hiring plans on hold in some sectors.
Tariffs can drive inflation by making imported goods more expensive, potentially pushing prices beyond the BoC’s 1%–3% comfort zone. The severity depends on how long tariffs last and whether Canada responds effectively, as BoC models show varied outcomes.
On May 8, 2025, the White House shared that President Trump spoke with Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The United States and United Kingdom announced progress toward a new bilateral trade agreement aimed at expanding market access and strengthening economic cooperation.
While the deal has not been finalized the financial markets are known to appreciate stability so it could be viewed as a step towards greater certainty. This matters to blockchain investors because Bitcoin has historically shown price movement around major trade events, although outcomes vary and remain unpredictable.
A recession brings rising unemployment and shrinking economic output. Crypto investors, aware of the high risks and volatility, need to look out for signs. Statistics Canada says Ontario’s unemployment hit 7.8% in April after losing 35,000 jobs, mostly in manufacturing and retail. Quebec added 18,000 jobs, but more job seekers pushed its unemployment to 6.0%, the highest since October 2017. Alberta gained 15,000 jobs, keeping its rate steady at 7.1%.
Retail sales, a consumer confidence clue, are slowing, with less spending on non-essentials while food and fuel costs rise. Canada’s oldest company, Hudson’s Bay, founded in 1670, is in the process of liquidation due to high operating costs and challenges in its ability to adapt to a changing retail environment.
Housing remains a growing concern. After years of soaring prices, many homeowners face mortgage renewals at higher rates in 2025 or 2026, with the BoC warning of financial strain as a “pocket of stress”. Canada’s economic growth is cooling, driven by global trade tensions and domestic challenges.
If economic conditions continue to shift, both traditional and digital assets may dynamically respond. Here are some key indicators to watch:
Inflation and CPI: Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks price changes for essentials. Tariff-driven inflation has been a recent cause for particular concern. Some market observers have historically turned to Bitcoin during inflationary periods, viewing it as a decentralized alternative to fiat currencies.
Interest Rates: The BoC’s next rate announcement is June 5, 2025. Higher rates can pressure crypto prices by strengthening the loonie and reducing risk appetite, while lower rates often boost BTC and digital asset demand. Both Traditional (TradFi) and decentralized (DeFi) markets closely watch these eight annual updates.
Crypto Regulations: Canada’s securities regulators are tightening rules on crypto trading platforms, which could limit trading access but boost legitimacy for assets like BTC. The BoC’s research into a central bank digital currency (CBDC) could transform digital wallets and streamline international payments, potentially challenging the role of decentralized cryptocurrencies.
While Canada is not officially in a recession, the numbers don’t lie. Tariffs remain a key area of concern, not only at home but on the world stage.
Last week, Prime Minister Mark Carney met with former U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House to discuss North American trade priorities. These diplomatic efforts may influence market sentiment in the week ahead.
Trade uncertainty could boost interest in decentralized assets like Bitcoin, as investors seek alternatives to traditional markets. Staying informed on interest rate decisions, inflation metrics, and global developments can provide valuable context. Although, some investors have historically looked to BTC during economic downturns, price responses to macro uncertainty remain inconsistent, and volatility continues to be a defining characteristic of digital assets.
For more educational content on regulatory updates, economic indicators, and crypto trends in Canada, visit the Newton blog. We post weekly insights to help you stay informed in a fast-changing financial landscape.
